Peramalan Kemasukan Banduan Ke Penjara

This study is a scientific analysis to forecast the inflow of male and female prisoner to Alor Setar prison, Kedah from year 2000 to 2005. The objective of the study is to identify a suitable regression model as well as to study the expected admission of prisoner within the duration. The model used is linear regression.
Data collected were all male prisoners (Malaysian male prisoner, foreign male prisoner), all female prisoner (Malaysian female prisoner and foreign female prisoner) from 1990 to 1999. A descriptive analysis was also carried out on the 21,611 prisoners covering age, income, educational status, recidivism, duration of imprisonment and conviction under Dangerous Drug Act. Result of the study indicated that linear regression is more suitable to be used compared to three moving average model. Analysis showed that data on Malaysian male and female prisoners admission is more suitable to be used to develop two model of linear regression forecasting model. This is because of the smaller forecasting error compared to data on other categories of prisoner. Linear regression also give smaller forecasting error compared to three moving average model. The also showed an increasing pattern of male prisoners by years, which is similar to studies done in other state. Admission of female prisoners was expected to be reduced till year 2005. This is not compatible with other state done such as in United States. However, the result is limited by data collected from 1990 to 1999.
This result indicated that overcrowding problem in male prison will go on and a reduction of female prisoners is expected. A descriptive analysis showed that most of the prisoners are in age group 21-39 years old. Those with no formal education or schooling until standard six only, is the highest group of prisoners.
Most of the prisoners are convicted for the first time and detained for six month or less. Majority of them had an income of RM 499.00 or less. Overcrowding of male prisoners in Alor Setar prison is also contributed by prisoners convicted under Dangerous Drug Act.