Teknik Peramalan Penggunaan Air : Kajian Kes Negeri Kedah

This study represents an attempt (i) to forecast the water requirement in Kedah until the year 2010; (ii) to identify factors that determine water consumption in Kedah; and (iii) to evaluate the income collection efficiency of the Water Supply Department, Jabatan Kerja Raya (JKR), the State of Kedah. Using time-series analysis for the time period 1995 tc 2000, the water requirement of the state of
Kedah was forecasted using the following four models: (a) Moving Average, (b) Double-Exponential Smoothing Method, (c) Box-Jenkins, and (d) Time-series Linear Regression. In this study, using the correlation and the chi-square test
discovered the factors that Influence the water requirement in Kedah. The efficiency of water billing collection system in Kedah was evaluated by (a)
comparing the "old" income collection system and the newly-implemented AWRS System of water billing collection, (b) the change in water billing collection, and (c) the amount of total arrears, also the amount of Non-Revenue Water. Based on the criteria of MAD and MAPE, it was establislhed that the time-series linear regression was the best model to forecast the water requirement of Kedah. Whilst the identified factors that influenced the rate of water consumption in Kedah were the amount of household, industrial areas and urban places.