Predictors of criminal recidivism: A study of recidivists in metropolitan Kano, Nigeria

Criminal recidivism is a holistic phenomenon as a result of the interplay between institution, social and individual personality factors. This contributed to the alarming rates of re-offending among ex-prisoners. The objective of this study is to examine predictors of criminal recidivism. Specifically, the study examines the effects of prison institution, social stigma, ostracism, discrimination and personality factors on recidivism. The study also examines the mediating effect of stigma, ostracism, discrimination and personality traits on recidivism. Data were collected by survey method and in-depth interview. A total sample of 256 ex-prisoners has been selected by purposive sampling strategy and six ex-prisoners were randomly selected for interview. Partial Least Square method (PLS) was used to test the hypothesized relationship for the study and Nvivo was used to analyse the qualitative data. The findings of the study show a significant relationship between prison experiences, stigma, discrimination, conscientiousness, agreeableness traits and criminal recidivism. Moreover, the study establishes that social discrimination and conscientiousness significantly mediates the relationship between prison experience and criminal recidivism among ex-prisoners. This study contributes beneficial insights in terms of theoretical, methodological and policy. Suggestions for future studies are also identified and discussed