An integrated model of enhanced analytic hierarchy process and system dynamics to evaluate anti-smoking strategies

Tobacco use has become a controversial topic in recent years. It all begins with a tremendous increase in the number of premature mortalities worldwide. In response, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has enacted a treaty, namely the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). This treaty represents a set of strategies for controlling tobacco use and reducing smoking prevalence which covers (i) packaging and labelling, (ii) pricing and taxation, (iii) tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship, (iv) smoke-free legislation, and (v) education, communication, and public awareness. Through these strategies, Malaysia set a target to achieve tobacco endgame by 2045, with a smoking prevalence of less than 0.05. Despite various antismoking strategies that have been implemented, smoking is still deemed the leading cause of preventable death. Focusing on this issue, previous studies have been utilising various modelling approach. However, these stand-alone methods have some shortcomings and can be improved by the integration approaches. Hence, this research aims to develop an integrated model that utilises the Enhanced Analytic Hierarchy
Process (EAHP) and System Dynamics (SD) techniques in evaluating the impact of anti-smoking strategy towards reducing smoking prevalence. In this study, the synergy between prioritisation and simulation is highlighted, and the integrated model is known as the EAHPSD model. Identifying the driving forces of the smoking habit and evaluating the dominant effect of the anti-smoking strategy in reducing smoking prevalence is a crucial step to see Malaysia’s level of progress in the global battle against the world’s most important preventable health risk. As a result, the integrated EAHPSD model provides a beneficial guide to the authorities by suggesting that the education, communication, and public awareness activities are best to be implemented by focusing on the psychosocial aspects within society. Consequently, the suitable strategy of tobacco control activities for reducing smoking prevalence in Malaysia was identified.