Strategic foresight and management of energy security in Jordan : The mediating role of strategic agility

Energy security is a critical national priority that underpins economic and social stability, yet it remains a persistent challenge in Jordan due to limited energy resources and political instability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Despite its strategic importance, the role of organizational foresight in managing energy crisis has received limited scholarly attention, particularly in non-Western, regulated contexts. Grounded in the Resource-Based View (RBV) and Dynamic Capabilities Theory (DCT), this study investigates how strategic foresight and agility enhance crisis management in Jordan’s energy sector. Specifically, it examines the effects of four dimensions of strategic foresight technology foresight, competitive intelligence, political environment foresight, and consumer foresight on key aspects of crisis management, including early warning, preparedness, damage containment, restoration, and organizational learning. Strategic agility is further analyzed as a mediating capability, encompassing strategic insight, internal and external response orientation, human resource capability, and information technology capability, which translates foresight into actionable responses. A quantitative survey was conducted with 200 managerial respondents in Jordan’s energy sector, and data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) via SMART-PLS 4. The findings validate eleven of thirteen hypotheses, revealing that political environment foresight and consumer foresight significantly enhance crisis management, while technology foresight and competitive intelligence exert no direct effect. Importantly, strategic agility is confirmed as a critical mechanism that strengthens crisis management both directly and indirectly, illustrating the complementary interplay of sensing (foresight) and reconfiguration (agility) capabilities. Theoretically, this study extends RBV and DCT by demonstrating that foresight and agility generate organizational value only when effectively mobilized in a dynamic, high-risk environment. Practically, the results provide actionable insights for energy-sector leaders and policymakers to institutionalize foresight systems, strengthen agile decision-making, and enhance national energy resilience. The study also identifies limitations and proposes directions for future research.